ACOP 2025 Market Insights: Navigating Structural Shifts and Regulatory Dynamics

The 16th Annual Communication of Progress (ACOP 2025) reporting cycle, covering 1 January to 31 December 2025, highlights a transformative period for certified sustainable palm oil (CSPO) amidst evolving global regulatory benchmarks, macroeconomic headwinds, and geopolitical tensions. 

Over the past four cycles, the RSPO membership has demonstrated strong reporting compliance, maintaining an average submission rate of approximately 95%, with mandatory submitters reaching a 95.8% response rate in 2025. 

Upstream trends: Yield recovery drives Southeast Asian growth; Independent Smallholder certified area expands by 30%

Overall, certified production demonstrated resilience, expanding to 16.2 million MT and representing 21% of total global crude palm oil (CPO) supply. In the upstream sector, certified production gains were primarily driven by yield recovery across Southeast Asia, offsetting a reduction in volumes in Latin America due to certification disruptions. 

Indonesia expanded its CSPO production by 6.6%, continuing to account for more than half of the global supply. Member coverage in Thailand rose significantly to encompass 44.5% of national CPO output, with 8.4% generated as certified volume. Despite experiencing regional supply disruptions, Latin America maintained the highest member coverage globally, with 63.5% of total CPO under RSPO Member operations. Meanwhile, production across Malaysia and Africa remained steady, contributing certified shares of 19.0% and 17.4% of their respective regional totals. 

Among independent smallholders, certified land area expanded by 30%, significantly outpacing the 14% growth in total smallholder hectarage.

Market transactions and sourcing: Demand shifts toward physical models; IS-Credits grow 37.7%

Market transactions for CSPO underwent a pronounced transition across supply chain options, a shift that RSPO is closely monitoring for significance and scale.  

Buyers shifted demand away from RSPO Credits, which experienced a 38.6% drop, and redirected purchasing toward traceable physical models such as Mass Balance (MB) and Segregated or Identity Preserved (IP/SG) supplies. Conversely, Independent Smallholder Credits (IS-Credits) saw strong growth of 37.7%. Total CSPO sales reached 10.4 million MT, representing 64.3% of total certified production, while overall uptake accounted for 12.1% of global domestic CPO consumption.

Midstream and downstream segments: Physical CSPO sourcing expands, led by IP/SG volumes

Midstream and downstream segments reflected contrasting purchasing behaviors across supply chain models. 

Processors and Traders expanded their total palm oil sourcing by 5.1%, raising RSPO’s share of global midstream sourcing from 76.8% to 80.3% despite trade disruptions and rising logistics costs. Physical CSPO sourcing in this segment grew by 1.6%, led by a 9.4% rise in IP/SG volumes as companies pre-positioned for plot-level traceability standards. 

Further downstream, market headwinds and trade disruptions appear to have influenced sourcing and purchasing trends in 2025. Consumer Goods Manufacturers saw a slight 4.1% dip in overall sourcing, with a 27.7% contraction in credit purchases outweighing a 4.2% gain in physical procurement. Retailers experienced an 8.8% decline in total palm oil sourcing due to softer consumer demand, yet their physical certified procurement held up far better than credits, showing a clear preference for Segregated and Identity Preserved supply chains.

ACOP Dashboard Update

The ACOP Analysis Dashboard is now updated with ACOP 2025 data. Detailed data and information are now available through the dashboard on the RSPO ACOP page.

Once again, the RSPO Secretariat extends its sincere gratitude to all RSPO Members for achieving an impressive record submission rate for the third consecutive year. These robust submissions are key for accurately understanding and reporting on market dynamics, to identify areas where members require assistance, and promote transparency in the overarching vision of making palm oil sustainable.